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ELECTION RESULTS
2024 U.S. Presidential Election
CHECK BACK HERE AFTER THE POLLS CLOSE ON ELECTION NIGHT FOR LIVE RESULTS & TO SEE HOW OUR MODEL BELIEVES THE ELECTION RESULTS ARE TRENDING.
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Solid Yellow = Polls Closed But Not Enough Data
Light Blue & Reds = Trending
Solid Blue & Reds = Race Calls
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The four different ways we call races:
1. If our model projects a 99% chance of victory plus Decision Desk HQ calls a race.
2. If our model projects a 99% chance of victory plus two national news broadcasts call a race.
3. If Decision Desk HQ calls a race and one other national news broadcast calls a race.
4. If the Associated Press calls a race.
PRESIDENT
ER Predictive Model - Chance To Win
Projected Winner:
DONALD TRUMP
+1% R Shift From Final Projection
Actual National Popular Vote Count
HARRIS: 48.3%| TRUMP: 50.1%
73,680,469 Votes | 76,386,169 Votes
Electoral Votes Needed To Win
HARRIS: 44|TRUMP: 0
Election Recon Projected 50/50 States Correctly
Incorrect Projections: N/A
SENATE
ER Predictive Model - Chance To Win
Projected Winner: REPUBLICANS
+2% R Shift From Final Projection
Seats Needed For Win/Majority
DEMOCRATS: 4
REPUBLICANS: 0
Seats Flipped To Other Party
DEMOCRATS: +0
(Seats Won: N/A)
REPUBLICANS: +4
(Seats Won: WV, OH, MT, PA)
Election Recon Projected 34/34 Seats Correctly
Incorrect Projections: N/A
HOUSE
ER Predictive Model - Chance To Win
Projected Winner:
REPUBLICANS
+2% R Shift From Final Projection
Seats Needed For Win/Majority
DEMOCRATS: 5
REPUBLICANS: 0
Seats Flipped To Other Party
DEMOCRATS: 8 (-1)
(Seats Won: AL2, GA6, LA6, NY4, NY19, NY22, OR5, CA27)
REPUBLICANS: 9 (+1)
(Seats Won: GA7, MI7, NC6, NC13, NC14, PA7, PA8, CO8, AKAL)
Election Recon Projected 428/435 Seats Correctly
Incorrect Projections: (5)
PA7, PA8, NY19, CO8, AKAL
CALIFORNIA STATE ASSEMBLY
ER Predictive Model - Chance To Win
Projected Winner:
DEMOCRATS
+1% R Shift From Final Projection
Seats Needed For Win/Majority
DEMOCRATS: 0
REPUBLICANS: 23
Seats Flipped To Other Party
DEMOCRATS: +0
(Seats Won: N/A)
REPUBLICANS: +1
(Seats Won: AD39)
Election Recon Projected 78/80 Seats Correctly
CALIFORNIA STATE SENATE
ER Predictive Model - Chance To Win
Projected Winner:
DEMOCRATS
+1% R Shift From Final Projection
Seats Needed For Win/Majority
DEMOCRATS: 0
REPUBLICANS: 12
Seats Flipped To Other Party
DEMOCRATS: +0
(Seats Won: N/A)
REPUBLICANS: +0
(Seats Won: N/A)
Election Recon Projected 19/20 Seats Correctly
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