top of page
ELECTION RESULTS
2022 Gubernatorial Mid-Term Election
UPDATED: FINAL
SENATE
ER Predictive Model - Chance To Win
Winner: DEMOCRATS
+0.5% D Shift From Final Projection
Seats Needed For Win/Majority
DEMOCRATS: 0 +VP
REPUBLICANS: 2
Seats Flipped To Other Party
DEMOCRATS: +1
(Seats Flipped: PA)
REPUBLICANS: +0
(Seats Flipped: None)
Election Recon Projected 32/35 Seats Correctly
Incorrect Projections: (3) - AZ, NV, PA
*Note: Our model correctly projected the GA seat on election night as heading for a runoff. Our model also correctly projected a DEM victory in the following runoff election.
HOUSE
ER Predictive Model - Chance To Win
Winner: REPUBLICANS
+0.5% D Shift From Final Projection
Seats Needed For Win/Majority
DEMOCRATS: 5
REPUBLICANS: 0
Seats Flipped To Other Party
DEMOCRATS: +13
(Seats Flipped: CA42, CO8, IL13, MI3, NC4, NC13, NC14, NM2, OH1, OR6, PA12, TX34, WA3)
REPUBLICANS: +22
(Seats Flipped: AZ2, AZ6, CA3, CA13, FL2, FL7, FL13, GA6, IA3, MI10, MT1, NJ7, NY3, NY4, NY17, NY 19, OR5, TN5, TX15, TX38, VA2, WI3)
Election Recon Projected 415/435 Seats Correctly
*Our model projected 18 more Republican Seats than the final results.
NOTE: Several seats switched party by state and/or district number due to reapportionment & redistricting after the 2020 census. This is why we show 35 seats changing hands between both parties. Republicans gained a total of 9 seats in this election.
GOVERNORS
ER Predictive Model - Chance To Win
Winner: REPUBLICANS
Seats Needed For Win/Majority
DEMOCRATS: 2
REPUBLICANS: 0
Seats Flipped To Other Party
DEMOCRATS: +3
(Seats Flipped: MA, MD, AZ)
REPUBLICANS: +1
(Seats Flipped: NV)
Election Recon Projected 33/36 Seats Correctly
Incorrect Projections: (3) - AZ, KS, WI
bottom of page