The day of reckoning for the United States is only eight long days from today. Many things are about to come to light in these dark times for the United States. First, we are going to find out who will control political power in the Nation. Two opposing sides have formed while trying to analyze and project an answer to the first question. Two distinct narratives have developed. One is being pushed by the mainstream media and the national polling complex. The other is driven by the minority of us who see a much closer contest across the Nation. Secondly, we will find out which narrative survives because the two are so far apart now, so vast is the gap, in theory, that only one can indeed survive. Lastly, we will get an answer to whether the losing side of the Nation will accept the results of one of the most hostile and hate-filled elections in the history of the United States. Each answer to these questions will have profound impacts on the future of America and the world.
Let take each of these questions one at a time. The big question first is, who is going to win the election itself? We have mainstream media pundits and gurus like Nate Silver and 538, The Economist, and others have forecast at a 90% chance of a Biden victory and 75% chance of Democrat control of the Senate. The Election Mafia as Red Eagle Politics has coined them, or the subset national polling complex as we have coined them here at Election Recon have Joe Biden winning the national popular vote by 7.5-12%. Such a shift in the U.S. electorate would be unprecedented in modern times.
As of this article's writing, the Election Recon model has Joe Biden at 58% chance to win the election and Republicans at a 52% chance to hold the U.S. Senate. A far more conservative estimate than the "Professional" punditry. While our model still is projecting a Biden victory today, we count ourselves in the minority of voices who believe the "Election Mafia" and the "National Polling Complex" are very wrong. However, no one can tell you with certainty, in these uncertain times plagued by civil unrest, COVID, and massive disruption in normal voting behaviors, what is going to happen on November 3rd.
Much like Highlander, there can only be one prognostication narrative to survive. Those of us who believe and are selling the story that this election will be close have objective early voting data, voter registration data, and past voting trends on our side. The narrative being pushed and sold by the mainstream media is that a rout is coming for President Trump and Republicans. On their side, they have a majority of polling data and their hype of extraordinary early voting turnout. There is a lot of noise and spin out there right now. The facts, however, are simple:
Early Vote turnout is up almost 300% nationally from 2016.
We don't know yet if this unprecedented early vote is cannibalizing election day and late ballots.
Democrats are winning the mail in the early vote, and Republicans are winning the early in-person voting. However, Democrats are winning the overall early vote nationally.
Democrats had massive early vote leads in 2016, and they did not hold up to Election Day turnout from Republicans.
Republican's strength in the early in-person vote is an indicator of how the Election Day turnout may look.
With the Democrats extraordinarily high early vote-by-mail turnout and the Republicans initial strength in the early in-person vote, only one of two scenarios will likely play out in the election. The first, Democrats are on their way to a new and extraordinarily high level of record-breaking turnout. Democrats and left-leaning independents, voting early, are going to show up on election day as well. If that truly is the case, then Republicans are indeed dead on arrival in this election, and the mainstream media, election mafia, and the national polling complex will have undoubtedly been vindicated in their prognostications.
The second, and I believe far more likely scenario, is that Democrats have cannibalized their vote early, and Republicans are holding on to their votes late out of fear of the election process itself. This second scenario does not guarantee an election win for President Trump or Republicans. It does ensure a much closer election than the professionals are proclaiming.
The election mafia and national polling complex are right about one thing: this is not 2016. I concur with them that the as many conservatives would claim from that election in 2016. Some major battleground states were missed, and but for a few tens-of-thousands of votes across three rust belt states, Hillary Clinton would be President of the United States today. In the year 2020, the pollsters and prognosticators have Biden up nationally with 7-12% margins. With forecasts of 90% to win the election and projections of 350-400+ electoral votes.
If Biden does not win the election by at least 5% of the popular vote or by 325+ electoral votes, the professional prognosticators will have many serious questions to answer.
If Donald Trump wins re-election or the Republicans hold the U.S. Senate, they will be proven outright frauds at this point. The bias would be the obvious answer to the question of how could they be so wrong again? The only question that I would be looking to answer is whether it was intentional or ignorance. Neither is acceptable. If Biden doesn't win big this time around, polls and their voices will not be trusted for a generation to come.
One way or another, there is going to be an outcome on this insane election year. It may be decisive, but it is far more likely to be muddled with accusations of voter suppression, voter fraud, failed mail-in voting systems, and court challenges. The Nation has not been this ideologically divided since the mid-1800s. In 2016, when Donald Trump won the Presidency, the losing side did not give him a moment's reprieve and had been relentlessly attacking him even before his inauguration. Today we can see armed militias, not in the hills or the woods practicing for civil conflict, but on our streets and outside of businesses we patron. Many of our major cities are burning at the hands of rioters and activists. Will the Nation accept the result of this election? I have no idea, but for the sake of the country, we will need to. I served in the Middle East, and I saw what happens to a nation that resorts to violence instead of the stroke of a pen to resolve its ideological disputes. We do not want to be like those nations. We must step back from the brink and return to civility. We must accept the result of this election no matter who is proven right or who prevails. What we do in the aftermath will be watched by the free world and what decision we make on the day will echo with consequences for a generation.
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